Eighteen Days Left and Here Is Where the Race Stands

As of this moment, Hillary Clinton has 270 Electoral College votes, which is the bare minimum needed to be elected President. There are seven states that are still toss-ups with two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska still undecided. Note that I am being charitable to Trump with Georgia, though it is technically a toss up. I still think he wins it.

But if the election were held today, Clinton would win.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Many Trump supporters have, like in 2012, convinced themselves that this time the polls really are wrong. The polling is not wrong and the internal data of both parties is confirming that the polls are not wrong. You may not have the data, but the parties are already finding voters who have already early voted and figuring out who they voted for.

Clinton is winning. That’s just the reality.

Republicans are still on track to keep the House and Senate if their voters turn out, but New Hampshire looks increasingly lost. Wisconsin and Illinois are already lost too. That makes the margin slim for the GOP.

If we look at the undecided races right now, Ohio really is too close to call in the polling average of that state. Iowa seems likely for Trump, who right now is 3% ahead, but the polling is not recent.

Nevada is trending rapidly for Hillary Clinton. Arizona is too close to call and it should not be. Arizona has never gone to the Democrats except, interestingly, to Bill Clinton in 1996. Hillary Clinton has a small lead there now. Most Republican strategists think Clinton will become the first Democrat to win Arizona. North Carolina’s polling averages have Clinton ahead by a couple of points, but not outside the margin of error in the polls. It is a likely Democratic pickup, however. Florida too is trending toward Hillary Clinton in the polling averages.

Right now the polling in every one of the undecided states is trending to Hillary Clinton (except Utah, which may go third party). Trump’s debate performance on Wednesday night will cause the trends to still go toward Clinton. To believe Trump is going to win, one must believe all the polls are wrong, but that is what happened in 2012 and the polls were right.

There is a fantasy still inside the bubble of Trump support that says he can pull this off. There are more than 3 million votes already cast. Both parties know that the trend in early voting has been for Clinton. The last three weeks have seen the undecided vote break toward Clinton because of the Trump scandal. For the first time since the 50’s, college educated men and women are breaking to the Democrats in the Presidential race.

And, again, outside the margin of error, Hillary Clinton already has 270 votes in the Electoral College. To believe Donald Trump can win now is to believe that in seventeen days he can cause a seven point swing in the polls, shift one of the current Clinton states back to his camp, then sweep all the current toss ups despite the polling in most all of them going to Clinton.

You can believe that. I won’t stop you. But you probably do not want to put any money on that belief. There is a greater possibility of Christ returning before Election Day than of Trump being able to affect a significant enough change in the momentum of the race to suddenly come from behind and win.

All your polling theories that claim he is really winning are the same polling theories that we hung our hat on in 2012. Didn’t work then. Won’t work now. While I have an email from a professor who swears brand new voters are turning out at a massive rate for Trump, voter registration data does not show this.

Wishful thinking will not get Trump across the finish line. Focus on saving the House and Senate.

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Erick Erickson

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