‘Shy Trump Voters’ Are a Fiction

Detailed surveys of voters more and more show the “shy voter” phenomenon is a fiction and there is no evidence that it would apply to Trump voters.

Of course Trump voters will say you could not find the data because the voters are shy. But sure you can.

It makes no logical sense that voters are willing to show up in massive numbers at Trump rallies and get their faces on television sets across America, but are too chicken to talk to an anonymous pollster. What “shy voter” theorists hang their hats on is the difference between live voter surveys and online surveys of voters. Trump does better in the online surveys.

As this report notes the difference has vastly more to do with polling samples and demographics. Likewise, live voter surveys still tend to be vastly more accurate than online surveys. Please note that we are not talking about Drudge style surveys, but actual random sample polls conducted online.

While many have looked at the disparity between online and phone polls, there are key differences between those surveys that could drive the variance in results. Instead, the POLITICO/Morning Consult study leaves most elements of the survey constant — including the sampling method.

But people are going to believe what they want to believe.

About the author

Erick Erickson

View all posts