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The Polls Have All Converged On This Number

The polls have, as they do every election season, converged on a common number. Some are slightly higher and some are slightly lower, but pollsters all generally get to a number that appears common among them.

This year that number is four as in Clinton has a four point lead across the polls.

Why is there convergence? It really is not some elaborate conspiracy. At the end of the campaigns, the pollsters do their most detailed polls with the largest sample of likely voters. These polls are more accurate. As Nate Silver notes, the most common margin among the polls is a four point lead for Clinton. Several other credible pollsters have it at a three point lead. One credible pollster has her at a six point lead.

As we head into election day, the Real Clear Politics average gives Clinton a 3.0% lead. For comparison, the RCP lead for Obama was less than 1%.

If Clinton takes Florida and North Carolina it will be an early night. If Trump and Clinton are neck and neck in Georgia, it bodes poorly for Republicans across the nation. And keep your eye on Vigo County, IN, which has voted for the winning President in every election since 1888, except two. The county went for William Jennings Bryant against Taft and Adelai Stevenson against Eisenhower. But since that race the county has always voted for the winner. We’ll see if it continues this year.

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Erick Erickson

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