Lies, damned lies and statistics
This morning, the AP published its “study” of the economic impact of North Carolina’s HB2, the “Bathroom Bill.”
In the 7 hours since that tweet and subsequent blog post, the story has been shared and trumpeted across the country as proof positive that, “See! It’s indisputable now that passing these bills is going to CRIPPLE your states!”
There’s just one problem. Math.
If you want proof that journalism is dead, compare the number of news outlets reporting these numbers as debate-ending with those who actually tell you what they mean.
Let’s Run the Numbers…
AP reports that the 12 year economic impact will be a loss of $3.76 Billion. Let’s compare that to the North Carolina Gross Domestic Product, the size of its entire economy, which was $495 Billion in 2015 (according to the BEA). From 2013-2015 North Carolina’s GDP growth rate made it the 11th fastest growing state economy in the union. However, for our calculations, we’ll only assume a 1% growth rate, which is anemic at best, to make our numbers extra-conservative.
Over the same 12 years that the AP looks at, the total GDP for North Carolina would be $6.468 Trillion ($6,468.08 Billion). So we divide the amount lost by the projected total GDP amount to determine the percentage impact that the Bathroom Bill would have over the timeline that the AP has projected:
$3.76 Billion / $6,468.08 Billion = 0.00058. To convert to a percentage you move the decimal two places to the right and we find that the percentage economic impact is 0.058% of the state’s economy over 12 years. That’s less than 6 hundredths of one percent!
Pardon me, but 6 hundredths of one percent doesn’t seem like the sky is falling to me. The volume and dogmatism behind the left’s proclamation of these numbers fully displays the idiocy behind their claims of, “significant economic impact,” and shows extreme contempt for American intelligence.
A few weeks ago, Texas State Senators were questioning a representative of the Texas Association of Business regarding similar claims about the impact of a Texas Bathroom Bill (SB.6). It was an exciting exchange that fully displayed the partisan hackery that these studies and their proponents engage in and the way that they use misleading numbers to prop-up their case.
Watch the exchange in full. You’ll enjoy it:
PayPal Numbers & Hypocrisy
Based on AP’s numbers, $2.2 Billion of the full $3.76 Billion impact of the law are a result of PayPal limiting their expansion in North Carolina. That accounts for just over 3 hundredths of one percent impact on NC over the next 12 years.
While PayPal may make a grand show of their disdain for the Tar Heel State, they are absolute hypocrites. As former Gov. McCrory said, “They’re doing business and have headquarters in Singapore, where you can get arrested for chewing gum in public.” In the same interview, Megan Kelly pointed out that PayPal does business in Saudi Arabia, where being openly gay carries a death sentence.
The most charitable interpretation of their actions would lead to a belief that PayPal very selectively upholds their “values.” But the truth is that they have incredible disdain for the LGBT community and their political supporters. They’ve put a price-tag on these “values” and as long as you are worth enough money to them, they’re perfectly willing to do business with people who actually kill members of that community. But if they can use a PR engine to exploit the LGBT community’s emotions, they will.
But Aren’t Bathroom Bills Draconian?
No policy change happens in a vacuum. The Bathroom Bill came about because the City of Charlotte adopted a heavy-handed ordinance that required all public businesses to allow anyone to use the communal restroom of their choice. No consideration was given to the belief or safety concerns of the business owners who were forced to live by that ordinance.
The North Carolina bill was a very even-handed approach to resolving the issue and protecting individual rights, as well as safety. It even went so far as to allow people who have undergone gender assignment surgery and changed their gender on their birth certificate to use the bathroom of their choice. And it allowed each business owner to make their own decisions, while only mandating the policy of government facilities. Cities can adopt their policies for their employees.
The Resurgent’s own Dustin Siggins wrote a fantastic comparison of the Charlotte ordinance and the NC Bathroom Bill which you can read in full here.
Many, if not most, articles written on the subject say that these kinds of bathroom bills are an assault on LGBT rights (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender). The imprecision of that term is ridiculous. The bill would only apply to individuals who consider themselves Transgender and would furthermore only apply to their ability to use communal bathroom facilities in government buildings. They could however use single use, “single occupancy bathroom[s] or controlled use of faculty facilities upon request.”
Furthermore, upon gender re-assignment and subsequent birth certificate change, they would be able to use the bathroom reserved for their newly-assigned gender.
The Left is Lying to You
Leftists thought that they could wow us with the economic impact numbers of their boycotts but the ineffectual nature of those actions is leaving them high and dry. Even in bogus “studies” that have tried to show inflated numbers, the impact is laughably low. They’ve tried to call opponents bigots, even when numerous options were given to accommodate each side.
The lies won’t stop soon but conservatives should continue to show what this debate is about: protection for the most vulnerable among us. I weigh the 6 hundredths of 1% economic impact with the potential for injury or assault to young men and women. Those concerns don’t come from bigotry towards “Transgender” individuals but rather from pedophiles and sexual criminals who exploit the laws for deviant ends.
How many rapes or assaults does it take to outweigh 6 hundredths of 1% economic impact?