Deciding with Your Head, Not Your Heart

It’s the tough part about politics. I know. I just spoke with a good friend yesterday morning. When you are this deep into an election cycle, it’s hard to know what to lead with, the head or the heart.

There’s a lot of debate after the Nevada Caucuses, aka the Banana Republic of GOP primary states.

Combined, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio would not have beaten Trump there. That’s the reality of it. A painful reality. Rubio did not win the Mormon vote (Ted did). Ted did not win the Evangelical vote (but I would argue, probably won the church going Evangelical vote-more on that when I have time). Trump won just about everything else and will continue to do so unless a Trump Firewall is thrown up ASAP.

So let’s start with this. Which states does Marco win in March?

No need to linger on that one very long. The answer is zero. Not even his home state of Florida.

There is a reason he is not running for re-election there, folks. Many have tried to spin it as, “He’s so all in to win the Presidency he’s not even running for the Senate.” Please. He is losing to Donald Trump in Florida by 27%. That’s right, the sitting, “popular, new face of the GOP, aka Goldilocks” Senator is losing in his home state to the Vulgarian of the North, liberal Donald Trump, the man who has never won a political race in his life because he’s never run for one.

But here is the worst of it for Team Marco. He’s losing to Ted Cruz, the man he is running around calling liar while telling the press he’s not in the race to attack his opponents. Which one is it, Marco? You are or you aren’t attacking your opponents? Because, honestly, calling someone a liar so you don’t have to run on your own merits is the bottom of the barrel politics. Maybe it’s what the voters have come to expect, but that doesn’t mean you stoop to it.

So what about Ted Cruz? Look, the 72 hours leading up to Nevada were as bad a macro news cycle as a candidate would hope for. His spokesman went after Marco on the ONE issue no one wants to argue: Marco is an Evangelical Christian. And guess what? Rick Tyler got what he deserved. He got canned. Cruz acknowledged he was wrong. How many candidates have you seen that have said, “You know what? My staff screwed up. The guilty party is now gone.” That is over and now we look to March 1.

As Erick wrote this the other day: Are You Sure It is Cruz, and not Rubio, Who Should Drop Out?

If a firewall against Trump is to get set up and set up today, which of the two bright, young, Evangelical Cubans can beat him?
Ted Cruz and only Ted Cruz. Let’s run through why.
*Marco Rubio will not win one state in March. Not one. Tell me again how he wins the nomination? And I will tell you he is not viable.
*Ted has already won Iowa. He is positioned to win multiple states on Super Tuesday. Marco will not win one.
*Marco will not win Florida. Not “might not.” That’s “will not.” Stop fooling yourself. He is six points behind Ted Cruz and 27 points behind Donald Trump with just over two weeks to go. If he cannot win his home state in the GOP primary, he cannot win it in November.
*Regarding the “one needs to drop out” argument, the Elon University poll shows that 43% of Ted’s supporters will go to Trump, not Rubio. Trump would only need half that number to go to him to beat Marco in a head to head contest. On the flip side, 46% of Rubio’s supporters go to Cruz (only 10% to Kasich). The ONLY one who benefits from the “one must drop out” scenario is Ted Cruz and the crowd that wants to actually beat Donald Trump.
*Which states can Cruz win on Super Tuesday? Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alaska and Tennessee. Maybe even Minnesota.
Again, which ones does Marco win?
So, do you really want to stop Trump with a candidate who can win in November? If you do, lead with your head. Not your heart.

 

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Drew Ryun

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