Back in early January, I made a prediction about the Iowa contest.
But one interesting fact is that Iowa is actually a good predictor of who might win the nomination in the next contested election. Bush 41 won it in 1980 and became the nominee in 1988. Bob Dole won in 1988 and became the nominee in 1996. And Huckabee won in 2008, setting himself up for 2012, but didn’t run. Erick predicted (for different reasons) that Huckabee would have been the 2012 nominee had he run. Winning Iowa is important to Cruz, who has several more runs at the White House left in him. For Trump, it’s all or nothing. Either way, the only candidates who might exit the race after Iowa are ones who don’t matter at this point.
Prediction: After Iowa, Huckabee will exit gracefully. Santorum should join him, but probably won’t. Paul should also go, but he’ll stay in.
There you have it. Huckabee exited, albeit not so gracefully after kneeling before Zod (apologies to Erick but that was too good to not use). Santorum hasn’t announced–he should, but my guess is he won’t for some reason known only to him and the 1,727 voters who joined him in Iowa.
Gilmore will forever be famous for receiving less votes (12) than “other” (148). Everyone under 2 percent should consider their chances to be somewhere between astronomically small and asymptotic to zero. In other words: Slim, fat and none, and Slim went to breakfast.
That includes Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie. But they’ll all likely stay in for New Hampshire, where Kasich has essentially lived for months, earning the endorsement of every liberal within 100 miles. Christie received the coveted Union Leader endorsement. We will probably have to wait until Feb. 10 for any of these to leave the race.
As for Ted Cruz, he’s proved his mettle against the bête noire of the conservative movement. It would be nice to see some alignment of lower-end candidates behind Cruz, but that’s probably asking too much.