Eduardo Akamine, of Brazil, waves his red jacket in front of the bronze 'Charging Bull' sculpture, Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2006, in the financial district of New York. Stocks moved higher Tuesday in heavy trading, gathering momentum that sent the Dow Jones industrials up more than 100 points. (AP Photo/Diane Bondareff)

Here Comes the Recession

Consumer confidence has not been this high since a few months before 9/11. I do not think that is why we are headed towards recession, but…

Now I say all this as someone who is not an economist, however I have been talking to a number of small businessmen lately. It all started with a conversation between me and an auto dealer. He noted that car dealers are in a recession of sorts. There is an oversupply of cars on the market, people took advantage of sales from a while back, and now people are not buying as many cars. Car dealers are starting to cut back on orders and are increasing their focus on service instead of sales.

That led me to a restauranteur who tells me that costs are going up in his restaurant. It is not labor costs in his restaurant that are the problem, but the pricing of goods that must be passed along to consumers.

In another conversation I had with a listener of my radio show who runs a temp agency, he said he is noticing an uptick in employers hiring temp workers again because a lot of employers are feeling uncertain about what is coming and are not hiring permanent workers.

All three of the conversations centered around uncertainty. Consumer confidence may be high, but there seems to be an underlying uncertainty about what is coming that is causing people to pull back. Anecdote is not data, but I do wonder where the economy is headed. What goes up will come down and things sure seem too good to be true of late.

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Erick Erickson

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