I have been predicting this since 2010. To be fair, it was not really a prediction so much as stating the obvious. Since my time at CNN starting back then I have often felt the need to note that the Democratic coalition as it presently exists is not the Democrats’ coalition, but Barack Obama’s coalition.
It is abundantly obviously looking at 2010 and 2014. This coalition of voters turns out when Barack Obama is on the ballot, but not at other times. This coalition votes at the top of the ballot in Presidential years for Barack Obama, but does not make it far down the ballot.
This is a coalition that is not enthusiastic about non-Obama candidates and is particularly unenthusiastic about Hillary Clinton. Her campaign and the Democrats are starting to realize that in Florida. Black voters may not turn out to help her. They are, naturally, going to send in Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the first and second black Presidents of the United States.
So many demographers and political strategists ignore this at their peril. Barack Obama, through force of personality, put together a coalition to get himself elected. But there has not been as much loyalty to the Democrats as some presume. Clinton is singularly incapable of holding that coalition together and only now are the Democrats having to face that reality.
Pass the popcorn. The next four years of Democratic Party politics, whether she wins or loses, are going to be exceptionally fun to watch.