This was supposed to be the “throw the bums out” election cycle, where “the will of the people” takes back the government. In the House, apparently that only applies to throwing out Republicans in favor of Democrats this year.
Roll Call’s 60-day “Top 10 Most Vulnerable House Members” are all Republicans.
David Jolly, R-FL
Rod Blum, R-IA
Frank Guinta, R-NH
Cresent Hardy, R-NV
Robert J. Dold, R-IL
Carlos Curbelo, R-FL
John Katko, R-NY
Bruce Poliquin, R-ME
Lee Zeldin, R-NY
Will Hurd, R-TX
The bold names are the ones most likely to lose by all the pundit hot takes. New Hampshire Republicans could well lose the Senate and the House this year, a terrible omen for the GOP.
Based on the current consensus of polling for the vulnerable Republicans, the Democrats could pull within 20 seats of control, leaving the GOP just 8 seats in the majority. On anything close, expect Republicans to cave every time.
With so many Republican voters discouraged at their choices at the top of the ballot, it’s going to be hard to get them out to the polls on November 8. Don’t expect the Trump campaign to mount any useful GOTV operation, and the cash-strapped RNC will have to pour every dime into the down ballot races to just keep from being routed.
Look for a very big headache for Speaker Ryan come November 9 if things don’t change (and they won’t with the current candidate).