With a week to go, Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff are tied and a lot of the race will come down to whether Republicans turn out on election day and the ages of the voters.
According to the 11 Alive poll, which has a better track record than some of the others floating out there,
A younger electorate favors Democrat Ossoff. He leads 3:2 among those under age 50. The older the electorate, the better Handel will do. She leads 3:2 among seniors and leads by nearly 2:1 among the ‘Old South,’ those who have lived in Georgia 30 or more years. Ossoff is up 25 points among the ‘New South,’ those transplants who have lived in Georgia 20 or fewer years.
More importantly, Ossoff has stockpiled an early vote lead. Though in theory the GOP has had more voters turn out in early voting, Ossoff apparently has a 19 point lead. That meshes with what is happening on the ground. A lot of Republican voters are viewing this race as a way to voice displeasure with the President. Ossoff is providing them that opportunity.
Notwithstanding all that, the district is still a Republican district and if Republicans turn out Handel will win. That’s just the question right now. Democrats have overwhelming enthusiasm and the GOP does not, so will they turn out?