On October 17, 2012, the Real Clear Politics average had Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 0.4%. At the same time in 2008, Barack Obama led John McCain by 6.7% in the RCP average. As of today, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5.5%.
In 2008, Barack Obama ultimately beat John McCain by 7.2% and in 2012, Obama beat Romney by 3.9%. In both elections, the ultimate outcome was higher than the polling average. It will be that way again. In fact, in modern American history no candidate has come out of the convention season with a polling deficit and then won in November. Therein lies the rub for Donald Trump. He and his campaign have been convinced that the normal rules of politics do not apply anymore.
They still do.
Trump has provided no compelling, coherent message. He has shot himself in the foot repeatedly. His campaign was completely unprepared for the opposition research drummed up by the Democrats. His campaign put in no ground game, invested little in advertising dollars, and thought they could continue to rely on free, unquestioning media coverage.
None of that has worked for him.
The best his campaign can do now is scream that the election is being stolen. But the election will not be close enough to be stolen and his campaign has no evidence of it being stolen. All they have is fear possessing his supporters. They border on irrationality and will shrink from logic.
In defending Donald Trump against allegations of sexual assault, his supporters have become what they accuse Hillary Clinton of being. And now, by throwing around claims of stolen elections, Trump and his supporters devalue and debase a very real concern in the same way they claim the left devalues and debases charges of racism through overuse with no evidence.
The election is over. Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. Her election was confirmed the moment Donald Trump became the Republican nominee.
Instead of uniting the GOP, he has divided it. His supporters now yell and demand unity for their man after a year of telling us they would not vote unless he was the nominee. They can hardly now be surprised when others feel the same way about Donald Trump.
It was always madness to presume a man who only got 36% of the Republican Primary vote could unite the party. “But he got a record number of votes,” his supporters scream, oblivious to the fact that a record number of votes went to all the other candidates combined against Trump.
The sad truth is, however, that Donald Trump never had any intention of winning. His supporters are convinced he will win. They are desperate for him to win. But they have been conned by a gold plated fraud. This was all a branding exercise and he will go back to his gilded tower satisfied that if he could not get elected, at least his friend Hillary Clinton got elected.
The RNC now needs to focus on preserving the House, the Senate, and the several states.