The latest ABC/Washington Post poll shows Clinton’s lead narrowing to nearly within the margin of error–and with a post-convention bump, that might mean Trump could even poll above her. But this buried gem foretells doom.
Winnowing to likely voters, the race goes to a 7-point edge for Clinton – an unusual result, in that likely voters typically tilt more Republican. But it’s an unusual contest.
Going from registered voters to likely voters usually gives the GOP candidate a bump, but in this case it gives Trump a 3 point drop.
That means there’s more likely voters in Clinton’s corner. And remember, there’s more Democrats than Republicans. So in states like New York, where Trump made a huge primary win, he didn’t get enough votes to beat Bernie Sanders, who lost to Hillary by a mile. In fact, all the GOP candidates combined couldn’t beat Hillary.
Trump has a lead of 60-33 among non-college whites overall, again about the same as Romney’s advantage in this group in 2012. Clinton, for her part, is competitive among white registered voters who have a college degree, 43-42 percent, Trump-Clinton – a group Romney won by 14 points.
That’s a reason Clinton does better somewhat among likely voters; college-educated adults are likelier to vote.
Trump may have gotten more votes in the GOP primaries than any candidate in history, but as Erick pointed out, more votes were cast against him in the GOP primaries than any candidate in history. Without serious pressure from the party establishment, Trump would not be about to be coronated in Cleveland.
Of all the candidates, Ted Cruz may have been closest to the truth: Trump will lose to political gravity. What he was dead-wrong about is the level of loathing against himself by the GOP, who was willing to enter into a suicide pact with an orange-tinted con man than to accept Cruz as nominee. Now that gravity to which Cruz referred is about to sink Trump and the GOP.
They are about to get everything they deserve.