Minds Made Up

Let me propose an idea. The conventional wisdom is that most minds are made up, the undecideds are a small group, and the election is going to be close. The poll numbers seem to be saying that.

What if, instead of that theory, it is that people just want reassurance that Bush isn’t some crack head religious zealot out to destroy the world. That’s the way he has been portrayed.

So, let’s test the theory. If Bush does get a bounce out of his convention, I think that will be the case. Kerry didn’t get much of one and possibly got a negative bounce. It may be that people wanted to find an alternative based on the perception of Bush and Kerry didn’t meet that choice. So, if the people are reassured by Bush, some of the Anybody But Bush crowd might return to him.

We’ll have to look for signs of this.

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Erick Erickson

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1 Comment

  • He says Kerry will win and has interesting reasons. But I look at it this way: after the 1988 DNC, Dukakis was up 20 points in the polls, and we know how that turned out.

    All Bush needs to be re-elected is to coast into November without any major political setbacks. The war in Iraq was more successful than Democrats give it credit for, regardless of the intelligence failures that led up to it. The economy is in much better shape than Democrats will admit or would like.

    Regardless of the polarization of young voters coming up, people will ask themselves one question in November: will Bush or Kerry be a better president for me? And I think the majority of American voters will choose Bush. I’m sticking with the prediction I made months ago: Bush/Cheney will get 52% of the popular vote and Democrats will cry foul over it. 🙂