We’ve worked our way past the halfway point of the NFL season, and teams are starting to emerge as better, or worse, than we thought they were. With that, the NFL lines have been closer than ever, as a large number of pretty good teams have bunched up in the middle. What does that mean for the week 10 lines? Well, we’ll see, and take my 21-20-4 (now winning) record with us:
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 over Washington Redskins (1pmET) – I’ve written for weeks now how overrated the Vikings were, depleted with injuries and a suddenly-stagnant offense. After a hot start, they have severely leveled off. But with all that said, I see them getting back on track against an equally overrated Redskins team. The Redskins can score in bunches, but their defense is ripe for giving a struggling offense a chance to fire up the engines. I see the Vikings getting right this week and winning in Washington.
Green Bay Packers -3 over Tennessee Titans (1pmET) – We’ve been down this road before, and it hasn’t ended well. The Packers have see-sawed all year, and despite excellent play from Aaron Rodgers, they have nobody at running back, and their great-on-paper wide receivers very rarely step up and perform. But all their games are close, and I could see them pulling off a victory over the Titans by 4-7 points. And in this case, that’s all you need.
San Diego Chargers -4 over Miami Dolphins (4pmET): The Chargers started off losing some heartbreakers, but have come back and are right in the playoff mix. The Dolphins started really slow, but with Jay Ajayi at the helm, they’ve run off an impressive streak of victories. Someone’s momentum will be impacted this week, and I think the Chargers ride on into their AFC West battle. Quite simply, they are the more reliable team on both sides of the ball.
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (4pmET): I struggled with this one – both teams are great, and you could make an argument the Cowboys are due for an off week. But something about the Dak Prescott-Zeke Elliott combo doesn’t account for off weeks. The Steelers need a win badly, and maybe they get one here by a point or two. But I could see the Cowboys hanging around and ultimately relying on their better-than-expected defense to take the victory for them and stay on track as the top of the NFC.
New England Patriots -7.5 over Seattle Seahawks (8:30pmET): A typical game between Pete Carroll’s Seahawks and his former team the Patriots would be a close one, with a line in the three to four point ballpark. But this is a different season. Russell Wilson isn’t right, still dealing with injuries forcing him to become a pocket passer. The Seahawks usually-reliable defense has been equal parts disappointing and sorely banged up. And Tom Brady has been unbelievable, perhaps the MVP of the league despite missing four games. For Trump fans Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the Pats will emerge victorious as well on Sunday night, and win yuge.