No election is without problems, but there is rarely sufficient problems to throw an election. The people who are looking at AZ and see fraud because Governor Ducey won and Representative McSally lost are missing the forest for the shadows of trees.
Ducey had years to establish himself as his own person with his own record of governance as Governor of a State. McSally, though not a Trump supporter, couldn’t get out from his shadow in this race. Likewise, Ducey was running against a person who ran a rather incompetent campaign and McSally was running against a wave of Democrat money and ambition. Candidates matter.
Ducey was not campaigning on going to Washington to stand for or against Trump’s agenda. That’s what the Senate race was about. It should make Republicans nervous that so many people were willing to vote for Ducey who weren’t willing to vote for McSally.
That difference has a lot to do with Trump. And McSally also undoubtedly lost some votes from Republicans who rejected her because she wasn’t sufficiently pro-Trump. The path forward for 2020 runs through places like Arizona.
Republicans can win by establishing their own brand separate from the President’s. That, however becomes harder in federal races where so many federal races will be based on the President’s agenda.
The good news for the President is that he has two years to try to figure out how to get a lot of these independent, but Republican leaning voters back. The bad new for the GOP is that the President seems incapable of trying anything different.
These voters in Texas, Arizona, Georgia, etc. didn’t become socialists in the last two years. They haven’t changed. They think the GOP has. Heck, the GOP lost suburbs in Oklahoma because of these issues. For God’s sake, people, a Democrat picked up SC-1 by running against Trump and tariffs and for free trade.
Republicans waving their hands claiming fraud need to come back to reality and pay attention. 2020 is very winnable. But it will require some strategic rethinking to get the suburbs back.