Does anyone remember the Election of 1860…the monumental election that essentially served as a prerequisite for the War Between the States (for those who are confused, read as the Civil War)? For those of you who need a refresher, Abraham Lincoln won and became the 16th president of these United States. But that is not my point. The point is that this election was not your typical 1 on 1, mano-e-mano matchup. Instead it was a 4-way race, where the victor won 39.8% of the popular vote defeating Douglas, Breckinridge, and Bell. Obviously we have had races since that time which were not just Republican v. Democrat. Remember Bush v. Gore v. Nader in 2000? Bush v. Clinton v. Perot in ’92? In fact, these races happen all the time, the difference is that it is rare for that third party to have a large enough impact, never mind a legitimate shot at winning the White House.
This brings us to November 2016. There is speculation of Trump v. Clinton , Trump v. Sanders or maybe Cruz/Rubio v. Clinton. And there is also some talk of Bloomberg entering as an Independent. With that in mind, consider this scenario.
As of late February, Trump is best positioned to win the Republican nomination. Personally, I still do not believe he will be the nominee, which is why the below scenario is more likely. Let us suppose for a minute that Trump wins the nomination and Clinton escapes Sanders (as well as federal prison). Bloomberg has the best opportunity since who knows when, to come in as an Independent and redefine himself as the likeable alternative to two widely despised people. With $1 billion or more to spend he would probably throw the race to Trump as the story always goes in a 3-way race. But I do not believe this is the likely scenario. Instead imagine…
Trump loses the Republican nomination to Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio because as the field winnows, the majority of the party will back the guy who will stop the Conservative imposter. Let’s say its Cruz, who I personally believe should be (but that’s another article) the guy. So you have Cruz for the Red Team and Clinton/Sanders (what difference does it make) for the Blue Team. Bloomberg still gets in because the Red and Blue teams are still allowing soft drinks to be purchased in grocery stores nationwide. But here is the kicker – Trump gets in as well because the only reason he lost the nomination was because he was lied about and stuff (which is bad) and he will be good, very good and never mind what he said about not running as an Independent.
Now we a have a 4-way battle between (1) the Conservative who used to be a Conservative and is now a Conservative, (2) an Independent who recently said he was a Conservative, previously a Democrat, but now just all around Good Guy with billions of dollars to spend, (3) an Independent, who claimed to be a Republican for a few weeks, but is now pushing the 28th Amendment to ban the manufacturer, sale, or transportation of sugary beverages…with billions of dollars to spend, and (4) a Liberal or Socialist (again what difference does it make) who believes your house is only your house because you stole it from the guy on the street corner.
We could very easily have the first well-funded contest between 4 well-known candidates in 150 years. So what does that mean? It means there is an excellent chance (read as sure thing) no candidate wins a majority of the popular vote. It means there is an excellent chance no candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes. It means Hilary Clinton could win South Carolina and Ted Cruz could win California. It means everything is on the table and the voters in Hawaii might see presidential candidates campaigning in person as every state is competitive. That also means Clinton/Sanders, Sugar-Free Mike, and Great Guy Trump will not be the victor because the House of Representatives will be the ones determining the next President of these United States.
It means this could be Paul Ryan’s finest hour.
But be beware, the War of Liberal Aggression would start shortly afterwards.