Donald Trump’s delusional plan to make blue states like New York, New Jersey and New Hampshire turn red in a presidential election flies in the face of reality, and it will destroy GOP chances in contested Senate seats.
If Republicans make up the same percentage of the vote as they did in the last presidential election, and all of those Republicans vote for their GOP senator, that will get Mark S. Kirk to 27 percent of the vote in Illinois. It will get Ron Johnson 32 percent in Wisconsin. Rob Portman will get 31 percent in Ohio, Patrick J. Toomey 35 percent in Pennsylvania, Richard Burr 33 percent in North Carolina, and Kelly Ayotte 27 percent in New Hampshire.
It’s so bad that some are calling for Republican Senate nominees to get on Gary Johnson’s Libertarian train before the Trump train derails them. Kelly Ayotte is considered a popular senator, but unless Trump accomplishes what all the polls show he cannot do, she will lose unless she comes up with a compelling reason for Democrats and independents to vote for her.
As of Tuesday, Johnson was at 7.8 percent in the RealClearPolitics polling average in four-way ballot tests that included Trump, Clinton, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. But Johnson was at 10 percent in the new, June NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Trump is so toxic that a man the Libertarian Party nominated in 2012, who received under 1 percent of the vote–a political cipher and pot-smoking curiosity–is pulling down 10 percent. A dead cat could make the ballot in all 50 states with this kind of “anyone but Hillary or Trump” momentum.
The problem is that GOP candidates are tied to the elephant, and unless the elephant rejects Trump, all these candidates are going to get clobbered. It really is that bad.