As I sit here at the Atlanta airport trying desperately to get to New Hampshire, Mother Nature is playing a cruel trick on the northeast.
It was forecast to snow Tuesday, a few inches. And as New England weather is wont to do, the storm blew up early. It went from a few inches to over a foot in Boston and north, and from Tuesday to Monday straight through Tuesday.
I will hopefully get to NH today in time to cover the primary tomorrow (Boston is out of the question, trying Manchester). Although northerners are used to dealing with snow, continual snow accumulation over a 24+ hour period, dumping up to a foot on the ground, will absolutely impact turnout tomorrow.
The NH Secretary of State predicted a record turnout for the primary of 282,000 registered voters. Remember, the NH primary is an open primary, so Democrats can vote in the GOP primary or vice versa, but at-the-door registration is not available. There’s no wave of new registrations possible, as can happen in Iowa (but largely did not).
Lower turnout plays against the operations with the weakest ground game, and plays to the campaign with the strongest. That hurts Trump and helps Cruz and Christie. It could be a real barn burner Tuesday,