In this Jan. 19, 2016, photo, Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas passes his campaign bus as he arrives for a campaign stop at the Freedom Country Store in Freedom, N.H. Cruz is dreaming of a face-off with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, even before the first primary votes are cast. He warns his supporters about what he thinks America will look like under a Clinton administration, predicting a nuclear-armed Iran, amnesty for millions of people in America illegally and the continuation of President Barack Obama’s health care law. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Ted Cruz Has Vastly Outperformed Donald Trump Over the Long Haul

Ted Cruz did not get over fifty percent in Wisconsin last night, but he has at least gotten above fifty percent in more states than Donald Trump. In fact, Trump has never gotten over fifty percent, though he might in his home state of New York in a few weeks. Cruz was able to get over fifty percent in Utah, which is not his home state.

For perspective on how bad a loss Wisconsin was to Trump, Ted Cruz who is no friend of the establishment, outperformed Mitt Romney’s win against Rick Santorum and Ron Paul from 2012. Cruz, last night, got more votes, more delegates, and a wider margin of victory than Romney got in 2012.

Likewise, since January, Trump has only really gone up in the national polling by about five percent. After thirty elections, Trump’s average vote share is at 35.6%, which is barely better than his first win in New Hampshire. He has a real ceiling.

So as we head to New York, Trump could win every single delegate there and, as Patrick Ruffini noted, would still need 61% of the remaining delegates, but has only ever gotten 48%.

Ted Cruz, meanwhile, has grown in stature, grown in support, and now leads Trump in the Reuters/IPSOS tracking poll, which has never happened before. The Trump campaign used that poll as their gold standard and will have to ignore it now.

Ted Cruz performs better against Hillary Clinton than Trump and can hold more of the Republican Party than Trump.

Trump is, in his words, a chocker.

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Erick Erickson

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