The Data Shows Disaster

Ignoring the data is something that gets people in trouble frequently. Those of us who oppose Trump ignored the data in the primaries. We ignored the polling that, since last July, had Trump ahead. We ignored the polling in individual states. “Oh,” we rationalized, “it overstated Trump’s support and understated Cruz.” We ignored all the data and then the people voted. The people voting reflected the polling. And now we should not make the same mistake again. We should not ignore the very same polling that had Trump winning.

What that very same polling shows is disaster for the GOP. Without a third party, Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. On his own, Republican vs. Democrat, Trump loses.

There is not a single blue state on the map that polls show will pivot to the GOP. Trump supporters claim New York will be in play. Hillary Clinton has a twenty-five point lead in New York. Hillary Clinton got more votes in New York’s Democratic primary than all the Republican candidates combined. Trump is not winning New York.

In Nevada, Trump has championed winning Hispanic voters in the GOP primary. That amounted to approximately ten people in the Nevada caucuses. In Florida too, Trump’s “Hispanic win” was a minuscule number. Polling nationwide, in Nevada, and in Florida shows Hispanic voters overwhelmingly going for Clinton. Even worse for Trump and the GOP, Cuban voters in Miami, once a stronghold for the GOP, are trending Democrat because of Donald Trump.

While there is not a single blue state that risks going red because of Trump, there are now four red states that risk turning blue. Utah, which is the most Republican state in the nation, is in danger. Georgia is in danger. Mississippi is in danger. Arizona is in danger. On top of that, the swing states of Virginia and North Carolina stop swinging away from the Democrats because of Trump.

Republican races in the Senate have all been downgraded for the GOP. Numerous House races are in jeopardy too.

Trump voters are now in the position where Trump opponents were in the primary. They are ignoring all the data. They are talking about landslide victories for Trump. They are delusional.

Donald Trump cannot consolidate the Republican base. He drives independent voters away from the GOP. Hispanic voters and women are lost to the GOP with Donald Trump as the nominee.

Republicans who voted for Donald Trump have cost conservatives the Supreme Court and will now cost the GOP the White House, Congress, and several state legislatures. But like Donald Trump refusing to ever be in the wrong, his voters will blame everyone but themselves. The data shows disaster and Trump’s voters have decided to put blindfolds on and blame the walls they run in to.

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Erick Erickson

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