The GOP South

I am only 30 — and a very recently turned 30. Yet I remember when, and to some degree it is like that today too, when many a Southerner voted for Ronald Reagan and a host of Democrats for federal, state, and local office. It is only recently that the GOP has starting making gains in the south — within the last decade. Ironically, it was Bill Clinton’s ascendency to the national stage that gave catalyst to the switch.

Now the switch to the GOP continues. See here.

Migration from liberal bastions in the Northeast and Midwest to the Sun Belt states will boost Republican electoral strength in the coming decade, making it tougher than ever for Democrats to win the presidency without carrying states in the South or Southwest.

    The Census Bureau’s latest projection of population shifts, the first in eight years, shows a dramatic movement from the North to Southern and Western states over the next 30 years. The study points to a political movement as well.

    Heavily Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Michigan will go on losing congressional seats and thus electoral strength in presidential elections, political analysts say. At the same time, they say, Republican states such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada likely will gain congressional and electoral clout.

    ”The net beneficiary of this will continue to be the Republican Party because the population shift is moving into an environment that is heavily dominated by the Republicans,” says Merle Black, a professor of politics and government at Emory University and author of books on political shifts in the South.

The population shift to the South will increase the number of House seats for Southern states and will, as a result, increase the South’s share of the Electoral College. Look for liberals to start clamoring for an end to the Electoral College.

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Erick Erickson

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