In this Jan. 19, 2016, photo, Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas passes his campaign bus as he arrives for a campaign stop at the Freedom Country Store in Freedom, N.H. Cruz is dreaming of a face-off with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, even before the first primary votes are cast. He warns his supporters about what he thinks America will look like under a Clinton administration, predicting a nuclear-armed Iran, amnesty for millions of people in America illegally and the continuation of President Barack Obama’s health care law. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

The Republican Choice: Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton

It is just data. In fact, it is the same data that showed the rise of Trump that so many of us, myself included, initially dismissed. The data that showed Donald Trump’s rise also shows Donald Trump does not beat Hillary Clinton. Despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, hardly any polling shows he will beat Clinton.

Trump supporters now want to argue with the very data they used to show he was a real, credible candidate. The data has since been reflected in the actual voting and there is nothing to suggest that half the data set, the half that shows Trump cannot beat Clinton, is somehow wrong. It is all part of the same data.

Stuart Rothenberg notes today that Trump’s Electoral College math does not add up. Trump has higher unfavorables than Hillary Clinton and any attempt to raise Hillary’s unfavorables further will only also raise Trump’s unfavorables.

Exit poll data last night showed that a third of Republicans and fully 40% of those who voted against Trump do not want to vote for him in the general election. Assuming even just a quarter actually do take that position in November, Hillary Clinton will be the President.

So the GOP is going to have to decide if it wants Hillary Clinton or Ted Cruz. For those who say Cruz cannot beat Hillary Clinton, the same data showing Trump cannot beat Clinton shows that Cruz can.

It is just data.

Republicans now have to pick. Donald Trump will not be President, though he may be the Republican nominee. No amount of conservative talk cheerleading got Romney across the finish line and it will certainly not get Trump across the finish line. It is what it is.

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Erick Erickson

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