Republicans have a keen, keen understanding of politics. They understand that mid-term elections tend to go badly against the incumbent President. They are already deeply worried about their President and already fear a bloodbath. They know the key to surviving mid-term elections is ramping up their base’s energy level to compete with an already energized Democratic base. So, like the geniuses they are, they have hatched a plan to oust Paul Ryan from the Speaker’s Office and are now proceeding with that plan.
What they intend to do is break every promise they have made to their base since 2010 and ensure Paul Ryan is replaced with Nancy Pelosi.
Republican leaders, against the wishes of Paul Ryan and Donald Trump, have decided to keep Obamacare in place and “fix” it. Since 2010, they have told the base that if the Republicans would give them the House, the Senate, and the White House that they would repeal Obamacare. Now, Paul Ryan wants them to repeal Obamacare. Donald Trump wants them to repeal Obamacare. But various committee chairmen in the House and Senate have decided to take a pass on doing that. They don’t want the hard work voters hired them to do and have decided to coast off the cliff.
Mid-term elections depend on an excited and mobilized base. The Democrats have it. If the GOP does not keep the one promise that made so many people stick with them, they will see their numbers wiped out. The typical turnover in the House in a midterm election is 30 seats. That would be enough to replace Paul Ryan with Nancy Pelosi.
If the GOP will not repeal Obamacare — if they just tweak it or do some too clever by half Cassidy-Collins plan where they keep it and claim they did not keep it — the GOP might as well kiss the House goodbye and probably the Senate too.