The Zogby Poll

Yesterday, in a very insightful post, Gerry Daly said that if today’s Zogby poll showed a 4 point lead for Bush, as yesterday’s did, there really has been no major shift. The reason is that the tracking poll tracks a three day after. So, as Gerry explains, if there are three days that are 45, 45, and 54, Bush’s three day average would move to 48%.

Gerry speculated that if Bush was still at 48% today, factoring in the shift, we would now have 45, 54, and 45, which would hold us steady at 48%. That appears to be what happened. We’ll find out more tomorrow, of course.

What we can say right now is that it would appear Kerry has lost his momentum and Bush has yet to pick it back up. Advantage to Bush. The guy with the bully pulpit usually has an easier time picking up momentum, even with an aggressively anti-Bush media.

[UPDATE] The Washington Post tracking poll has Bush up by 3. There is a definite trend towards Bush in the polling.

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Erick Erickson

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