This Doesn’t Look Like the Verge of Death

Barack Obama has won the Presidency twice. Hillary Clinton will win in three weeks. It will be only the second time since World War II that one party has kept the White House for three terms. Reagan/Bush was the first. But beyond that one office, it is worth remembering how dominant the GOP is despite the distraction of the Presidential train wreck.

The GOP controls 55 seats in the Senate and 247 seats in the House. Its margin is greater than any time since 1928. At the state level it is even more impressive.

The GOP controls 31 of the 50 Governors’ offices; 56% of all state house seats, and 55% of all state Senate seats. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, as of September 7, 2016, the GOP controlled 30 state legislatures. The Democrats only controlled 12 with the rest split between the parties. Nebraska is the only nonpartisan legislature and if it were partisan it too would be Republican.

22 states are completely controlled by Republicans in both the legislative and gubernatorial offices. Only 8 are controlled by the Democrats. 19 are divided and Nebraska is Nebraska.

Barack Obama’s tenure in office has been deeply destructive to the Democratic bench leading the GOP to have a much stronger farm team in state legislatures and governors’ mansions to step up with both campaign and governing experience.

2016’s election cycle will not see the GOP surrender the majority of gubernatorial offices. The odds are still low that the GOP will lose the House. In the wave year of 2006, the Democrats picked up 31 seats. This is not a wave year and the Democrats would have to win 30 seats to get a bare majority.

Donald Trump and his surrogates are actively sowing discord about the election cycle and claiming the election will be stolen purely because he knows when the loss comes we will see what a spectacularly bad candidate he was. House and Senate Republicans across the country will out perform him. Though his campaign will claim that as proof the Presidential election was stolen, it would beg the question: why not steal everything? That’s not going to happen.

The GOP can bounce back from this. But it will require a recognition of problems and acknowledgement that the status quo and faces of leadership need to change.

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Erick Erickson

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