The United Kingdom votes today on whether to remain in the European Union, subject to a bunch of French-collared, limp-wristed, unelected fops who “legislate” things like robotic citizenship taxes. Or if they decide to be the United Kingdom once more.
Although polls and bookies have been spectacularly wrong before in politics across the pond, they’re favoring the geldings who wish to tuck under and sit to pee in Brussels.
Ladbrokes Plc said Tuesday that the odds on a “Remain” vote had shortened to a 2/9 chance, indicating an 82 percent probability. Brexit opponents may win with 50 percent to 55 percent of the vote, wagers on the Betfair exchange suggest.
According to The Guardian, the polls remain close, with mixed results.
Monday night was typical – the ORB/Telegraph phone poll showed remain 7% ahead, while the YouGov/Times online poll reported a 2% leave lead. If that difference persists in the final polls, somebody is bound to have awkward questions to answer.
That said, the pollsters’ long-term record is generally outstanding – especially when one takes account of their little secret: that it’s becoming much harder to obtain representative samples. Twenty years ago, telephone polling companies would draw 7,000 random residential telephone numbers; these would yield 2,000 completed interviews. Now they must draw 28,000 numbers. Response rates have collapsed from 30% to 7%.
So in the end, we simply don’t know until the results are in.
I, for one, hope to see the United Kingdom stay a Kingdom versus becoming an island tributary to the New Rome on the Senne. Because once Brits, Welsh, Scots, and Ulsters vote to keep their sovereignty in a box in Belgium, there it will remain, likely until the next wave of invaders cross the channel to the beaches and cliffs separating the islanders from the continentals.
If that happens, June 23 will be a sad day on a par with November 5, and Guy Fawkes will have succeeded, 411 years late.