Trump and Clinton Tied in Three States

A Quinnipiac poll has Clinton and Trump virtually tied in three swing states. The states are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

This will give the Trump supporters some hope. In Florida, it is Clinton at 43% and Trump at 42%

In Ohio, it is Trump at 43% and Clinton at 39%.

In Pennsylvania, it is Clinton at 43% and Trump at 42%.

Women are overwhelmingly for Clinton and men are overwhelmingly for Trump. Everybody hates both Trump and Clinton.

Before the Trump supporters celebrate too much, we do need to consider history.

At roughly the same point in 2012, President Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by single digits in Ohio and in Pennsylvania, while Romney led by 1 percentage point in Florida. (Obama ended up winning all three, all by single digits.) Four years earlier, eventual Democratic nominee Obama trailed Arizona Sen. John McCain by 1 point each in Florida and Ohio, but led by 9 points in Pennsylvania. (Obama also won all three states in November, winning Florida and Ohio by single digits and Pennsylvania by 10 points.)

The problem on top of that is that Utah, Arizona, Mississippi, and Georgia are now competitive for Hillary Clinton while no solidly blue states are for Trump. If we gave Trump all three states in the Electoral College, and gave him Arizona, Utah, Mississippi, and Georgia, he would still fall below 270 electoral college votes because he loses Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada to Hillary Clinton based on present polling.


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Erick Erickson

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