CNN is peddling a poll conducted this week that asked 1,010 adults whether they would vote republican or democrat in the 2018 midterm elections. 51% answered Democrat, while only 37% answered Republican.
Before we get to what this may or may not mean, let’s look at the poll itself. First, let’s consider the source: it’s a CNN poll. Hey, at least it’s not Buzzfeed or Huffpo right? Secondly, though, the poll was conducted on adults…not likely voters, or even registered voters. So obviously these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.
That said, history does tell us that polls like this one that show the GOP in big trouble for the midterms shouldn’t be completely ignored. The President’s party almost always takes a whipping in midterm elections.
In the 2010 midterms, Democrats lost 63 Congressional seats, and 6 Senate seats. Dems lost 13 more Congressional seats and 9 more Senate seats in the 2014 midterms. Before Obama, George W. Bush did manage to gain seats during the Iraq war in the 2002 midterms but lost 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2006. Clinton, Bush 41, and even Ronald Reagan also lost seats during midterm elections.
Whether this trend will hold or not remains to be seen, but the fact remains that the clock is ticking on Trump and the GOP. 2018 will be about results, and Republicans better be aware of the fact that piddling around with major promises like healthcare, immigration and tax reform is a very dangerous game.
To say that the past ten months have been a cringe-worthy comedy of errors is an understatement. The President has spent much of his time playing musical chairs with the presidential cabinet and attacking true conservatives, while Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell have continued to do what they do best–pander to defeated Democrats and governing like the minority party despite holding one of the strongest hands in American political history.
If Trump and the GOP don’t stand and deliver in the next 12 months–if they leave Obamacare or some bastardized version of it in tact–if they fail to put a stop to unchecked illegal immigration–if they don’t follow through with tax reform–their total self-emasculation will be complete. They will have utterly humiliated themselves as a party and the voters that sent them to Washington. Americans will not forget their betrayal nor forgive them for it.