The individual polls matter very little due to their fluctuations, but the polling average is a great measure of how the race is shaping up. For the first time since head-to-head polling has asked the question, Donald Trump has taken the lead against Hillary Clinton in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
Sure, it is only a 0.2% lead, but it is a lead nonetheless — his first against Clinton.
While Bernie Sanders may lead Trump by 10% in the RCP average, Sanders really does not have much of a chance of becoming the Democratic nominee and, frankly, he is polling so well because everyone is ignoring him.
When I was a political consultant I would tell my clients to know when they were in the minority even if they think they are right. I know for certain I am in the minority among Republicans in refusing to vote for Trump. Trump has managed to get the overwhelming majority of Republicans to rally to him as they crave both a win in general and beating Hillary Clinton in particular.
Clinton, meanwhile, is still working on trying to consolidate the Democrats and Bernie Sanders is preventing her from doing it.