Trump’s Twelve Point Decline Is Overstated

Donald Trump has declined twelve percentage points in a Reuters/IPSOS tracking poll. Carson has also declined with Cruz and Rubio tied for third place behind both men. Trump’s support is now at 31%.

I have long thought the Reuters/IPSOS tracking poll was overstating Trump’s strength at +40%. The RCP average has him at 27.5%, which I think is probably more realistic. The Reuters/IPSOS poll is just just coming into line with all the other polling out there.

For Trump opponents, I don’t think it is time to cheer. For Trump supporters, I don’t think it is time to panic. I think the polling is just adjusting to reality. Trump still leads and has about a third of the GOP, but cannot seem to cross that. Ben Carson will probably continue to decline.

Cruz and Rubio continue to inch upward. These are the realities of the race right now and nothing has really changed. While I continue to think Trump does eventually fade, I just think the Reuters/IPSOS poll is coming into line with other polling trends right now and perhaps not exactly detecting a collapse of Trump support.

Donald Trump remains the frontrunner.

About the author

Erick Erickson

View all posts