The best way to gauge if a heavy machinery factory is selling its wares is to look at the rust on the rail spur. Similarly, the best way to judge who Wall Street figures to win tomorrow is to look where the money is.
If Wall Street shorts the market, planning for the inevitable crash, that’s evidence they think Trump is going to win. If the market is bullish, that’s a bet on Clinton.
With zero trading days left before the election, the Dow ended up 371.22 (+2.08%), Nasdaq was up 119.80 (2.37%) and S&P traded up 46.34 (2.22%). That’s a fairly solid bet on Clinton. Similarly, world markets have not shuddered, with trading up in Japan, Hong Kong, London and Germany.
Clearly, the hedge traders think it’s going to be business as usual. But they were all wrong about Brexit, weren’t they? Should the exit polling start to tilt toward Trump tomorrow, look out for an enormous sell-off. But tonight, they seem pretty sure of themselves.