Republican presidential candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush throws a snowball following a campaign event, Monday, Feb. 8, 2016, in Nashua, N.H. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

We Could Have Mud

With snow in the forecast for New Hampshire, we could have a muddy showing at the polls.

While I have said I think Trump will win, the polling in New Hampshire can be wonky and there could be a high chance for a cluster of candidates essentially tied.

Candidates need a 10% threshold to get any delegates in New Hampshire and that could matter. But what could also matter is a clump of candidates together at ten percent where everyone gets to claim a trophy.

After the 2012 election, the RNC reshaped its calendar and rules for the 2016 election. It seems the gods of campaigns have a sense of humor and have taken advantage of the rules and desire for a short primary to stretch things out as long as possible.

If no one really stands out tomorrow, candidates we all expected to drop out will have no reason to drop out. Bush could stay, Kasich could stay, Fiorina could stay, and Christie could stay. The consolidation everyone hoped could redraw battle lines and constituencies may then wait for South Carolina or into March.

The odds go up as more and more polling shows a very, very tight race for the second spot. If Trump wins and everyone else is clustered, it remains a Trump v. Cruz race with everyone else competing to be the alternative instead of the Cruz v. Rubio race so many of us, myself included, expected.

The prospects of a neatly defined race keep getting muddier.

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Erick Erickson

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